The Fairy Proposal Again??
In order to consider the worth of a project one should consider what the future of Port Burwell will be in ten to twenty or thirty years.
The world in the next few short years will undergo a shortage of fossil fuel supplies because of the exponentially increasing demand for fossil fuels by North America and the developing economies of the world such as China, India and Korea. We have come to the end of cheap oil and there is just not going to be any more to be found. It is not renewable but a finite resource and we are depleting it at a rate of millions of gallons a day. Once demand outstrips supplies then prices also increase drastically.
Although I have been seriously studying this for over a year, no one has really prepared for this and I have not found any ready alternative solutions to heating our homes or fuel for our vehicles at our present rate of use.
The only solution then will be to cut down on use. That means insulating houses much better and having as little transportation as possible. Airplanes will not be viable, long distance hauling for our food will not be feasible nor will driving any long distances. The exception to all of this is the very rich who will be able to afford most anything.
Now how did I become aware of this..... well anybody can. Just log onto the internet and look up a topic called Peak Oil. And it was Mr Hubert that started this whole idea when he realized that oil deposits are finite and at some time they will run out. It may surprise you that many people like Matthew Simmons, CEO of one of the largest energy investment firms has come out with the facts of this next crisis for our way of life. Many books authored by economists, geologists and researches have come to the same conclusion and if there is any difference it is just wen this will occur. That difference however is relatively narrow, but most say it has already started.
This problem can be seen manifesting itself in Britain in the winter of 2006. There is a shortage of natural gas since the north sea oil fields have peaked in their supply and rather than shut down the heating for homes it will be the businesses that have to be shut down...... then the workers have no work.... then, they have no money for the escalating costs of home heating. A certain amount of planning ten years ago would have prepared Britain for this eventuality. But politicians could not do very much despite the warnings from those who had become aware of the pending problem. I'm sure that last year most British citizens did not take these dire predictions very seriously after all technology usually comes to the rescue. There is no solution in sight except to cut down on usage. Even nuclear is not a sustainable energy source, it too will run out.
Not withstanding the oil shortage how about the green house gases? Canadians have been the most negligent, we have increased our greenhouse gases about 24% rather than cut our greenhouse gases according to the Kyoto accord. We desperately need to cut our carbon dioxide emissions in order to save this world from disastrous climate changes. While the ferry advocates will argue that the ferry will actually cut greenhouse gases a thorough assessment will reveal that this is the wrong direction to go in. It would be much better to take a stand against any increased use of energy and put time and money into developing a sustainable community sponsoring small diversified business in Port Burwell that have a local market or a link to the internet of phone lines, for things such as a call center. I know my bank has its call center in Nova Scotia.... why not Port Burwell?.
Can we prepared for this in Port Burwell or do we wait until we are in a crisis situation?
We are considering a Ferry business that depends on vast investment, Government expenditure and a tremendous increase in the use of energy in the Port Burwell area. It will produce a lot of traffic that will increase our road maintenance, increase the sewage, harm the environment and bring about a shift in social order in Port Burwell . Bayham county will gather more debt, by upgrading the roads, buildings, sewage systems, electrical systems etc then raise our taxes to pay for it all. Will those promised jobs disappear as the price of vehicle fuel goes up? Will the passenger trade diminish leaving only a steady stream of cargo trucks? And will this do anything to prepare us for Peak Oil? Not likely!
Whether we like it or not we have to prepare for the impending energy crisis. We need many years to prepare for the effects of the petroleum peak and many years to learn how to live with a lot less energy consumption. There is no one in the investment world nor anyone in government nor anyone who has researched peak oil, who feels that we can continue increasing our energy needs knowing that the world can no longer support the future demand. There is no immediate solution. A look at hydrogen, alcohol or biodeisel reveals that they cannot be produced in enough quantity or at a rate that is economically viable. A quick check on the internet with the situation in Britain will show how desperate things are getting. And another check will reveal that New England is now most vulnerable to a natural gas shortage this very winter.
Now consider that the Ferry does come to Port Burwell. House prices will certainly go up by lets say double. So a $95,000 house is now suddenly assessed at $190,000 even though I did not buy or sell it recently. None of the other houses in Bayham will go up as it will in Port Burwell so those in Port Burwell can expect double the taxes just because house values went up. I also note that there are a number of retired pensioners in the village who live on a fixed income. If their property values go up can they afford to have their taxes doubled?
So the Ferry comes to town, we upgrade the roads, dredge the harbour, build sewer and water lines. Etc. But the Ferry decides that it is not profitable to continue so they fold up and move away, but we are left with the cost of the upgrades and many years of taxes.
So what should we be doing in Bayham county to meet the challenges of five to ten years down the road ?
With the demand outstripping fossil fuel supplies, costs will escalate for everything we do for almost everything is based on some form of oil. At first we will have problems affording to drive anywhere and then the present scarcity of Natural Gas will be come more apparent when the cost of heating a home becomes impossible to afford, in fact the natural gas shortage will become so critical that natural gas will be cut off to homes for days as rotating outages have to be invoked. To make matters worse the greatest proportion of our electricity in Ontario comes from natural gas...... so what happens? Power down businesses, cut out the electrical production or cut heating for homes?.
If there is no electricity and basic heat what use will the ferry service be? And how much debt will we have to face in the coming years? How can we prepare for using at least less than half of the energy we currently use at continuing escalating costs.??.... and then perhaps many of us will have to do without fossil fuels and that means no travel and no heat.
In all of my research on the internet, I have found no viable affordable source of energy that can replace oil. Windmills will only supply a small fraction of our current needs and it will always be intermittent as wind is unpredictable in nature. Biogas is perhaps the most promising as it is already in use in many parts of the world. But Biogas is a locally produced gas that has limited uses in transportation but is best used for heating and possible electrical generation. These plants require large investments and a couple of years lead time. Perhaps a better project would be to harness the Port Burwell sewage plants and turn it into a biogas plant. This idea is not new and has been done in many cities all over the world.... in fact even in the United states.
How will our dispersed community of Bayham survive without travel to the food stores? How will our bananas get here from south america? How will our vegetables comes from California? And if many of us cannot afford to heat our homes what kind of a world will this be?.
Maybe we should be considering a more local economy simply as a prudent preparation.
Our farmers too will have tremendous problems since all of their fertilizers are fossil fuel based and since the fields are so badly depleted in organic composition that they will not produce any kind of crop yield without fossil fuel dependant chemical fertilizers. Clearly travel to nearby centers to purchase expensive goods made from other parts of Canada or other parts of the world may be out of the question. And what do we do for heat? Burn all the trees and denude the country?
After seeing what happens to human nature when hunger and greed overtake as in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, I am not too sure the world will be a pleasant place to exist.
What should our Bayham community be considering doing when thinking of ten years hence?
In the long term we clearly need to have sustainable neighbourhoods where we walk to local retailers who have goods produced locally. In order to cut down on energy use our homes need to be multi family dwellings, better designed for community living with much better insulation, solar passive heating, composting toilets, organic vegetable gardens and grey water irrigation for fruit trees.
The short term relief fantasy offered by the ferry is short sighted and will only lead to greater taxes and a divided town of Port Burwell.
Chasing after these Mega projects is not going to benefit Port Burwell it only exacerbates the boom and bust of this village . In the Ferry presentation On Feb 8, 2006 in Straffordville, they mentioned that there would be about 240 trucks per day coming into port Burwell. And they would come on all roads, ending our quiet community and making the roads unsafe for pedestrians, cyclists and kids.
The roads simply will not handle the traffic and will require major expenditures and tax dollars. When you consider that a mile of road costs about 30 million, our taxes will surely be increased for many years to come while the ferry can leave at any time it is considered unprofitable. It may not be county money but as far as I know I still contribute to Federal dollars spent.
Our time would be far better spent encouraging small businesses of great diversification where the profits stay local and the businesses are not so large that any burp in the economy sends the whole town into financial ruin.
It was mentioned that there was a danger that the school may be closed. As I look around there are really no empty houses so Port Burwell is not a ghost town but it may suffer from more summer time residents. What is the criteria for keeping the school? Maybe we should find out the facts first.
I just wonder if anyone has thought about the windmills here. It is certainly a boon to the present local economy during the time of windmill construction but what happens when the construction crews leave? Would it not have been better to stipulate that the main office be also located in Bayham county and that all maintenance be locally done to assure that jobs are kept in Bayham? Also what if it had been stipulated that to have a windmill located in Bayham you must also have a factory located here to use that electricity? Why ship it off to Some distant city. Again are we not encouraging poverty and plundering of the bayham resources? Infact it might have been a great selling point to locate your business in port Burwell, put up your windmill and have free electricity! At least that is what I am considering.
We also need to encourage also local developers to develop sustainable communities in Bayham. A sustainable community for seniors would be an excellent start.
I can't imagine that those that live along the road leading to the ferry will be happy at all with the increased traffic, noise and fumes, nor those on the other side of the river in Port Burwell when the traffic crosses the bridge to come north up highway 19. The promised jobs will be for educated personnel with very little use of locals. In fact with the increased taxes, more expensive homes and general increase in the cost of living those that are in the low income bracket will have to leave Port Burwell.
And when the Ferry quits we will again have the typical boom and bust prevalent in Port Burwell.
Below is a simple calculation of the financial feasability for this venture:
Port Burwell Fairy Service
incomes
trucks per day $240
cost of travel per truck $200
income per day for trucks $48,000.00
cars per day $200
cost of travel per day for cars $80
income per day for cars $16,000.00
Total incomes per day $64000
expenses
workers per day $170
hourly wage $15
wages per day $61,200.00
Cost of the boats per day(4%x18000000) $1,972.60
fuel costs 200 gpm x 45 milesx.80 per liter $7,200.00
total investment $150,000,000
Return expected 10%
expense of interest on investment per day $41,095.89
Total expenses $111,468.49
Loss per day ($47,468.49)
Matthew Redsell
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